ASFMRA AgNews - Vol. 13 Issue IX [February 27, 2017]

By ASFMRA Press posted 02-27-2018 09:25

  

Fewer Acres Are Being Farmed

Where will the next survey take us?

Every five years, the U.S. Department of Agriculture conducts the National Agricultural Statistics Service, a survey of farming across the county. The study includes information ranging from the number of farms in each county and state to the number of acres in production and the market values of those farms and their crops.

The 2012 is the most recent study where we can see the results, but the USDA recently completed the survey of the country's farmers for the 2017 version. Once all that data is sorted, the new report likely won't come out until spring of 2019.

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Agricultural Land Valuation Will be Stable According to Farmers

Based on the November 2017 report of the Purdue/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer, U.S. farmers are more hopeful about the price stability of farmlands.

Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture conducts the agricultural survey every month to determine the trends and opinions in the sector. The survey has 400 respondents—all of whom are farmers or farm owners—from across the country. They were asked via phone interviews to estimate the status of the agriculture economy.

On a month-on-month change, the Purdue/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer actually dropped seven points. This indicates a negligible decline in the overall confidence, but the November 2017 number is still higher than the November 2016 number when farmers were obviously jittery about the elections.

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Global Equity Market, Correction or Continuance?

Two key market questions occur as we enter the week of February 19, 2018. First, has U.S. and Global equity markets finished a corrective period? And, second, what is the impact on the rice, grain and cotton prices?

Some, actually I expect most, of the world’s largest market-makers find today’s stimulus-driven markets historically challenging to navigate, at least for modern times. Knowing what is going to happen is vastly different than knowing when it is going to happen as global governments and central banks intervene to maintain economic momentum.

The S&P 500 was down 11.83 percent from its top, but last week regained 65 percent of its loss. If one takes into account current global financial engineering and valuation metrics of this equity market, then one could, over the next 3 to 8 weeks, expect an additional downside move in this market, and most global equity markets, or at the very least sideways price action, which would likely be bearish for the commodity sector. Always remember, markets will always move in a direction that negatively impacts the most market participants.

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DowDuPont Opens California Innovation Center

Today the Agriculture Division of DowDuPont announced its opening of the Bay Area Innovation Center in California. The site features a research and development facility that will focus on biotechnology discovery, enabling technology development and informatics.

The center will employ more than 100 scientists in its 60,000 square feet of laboratories, 25,000 square feet of office space and 13,000 square feet of greenhouses. Bay Area Innovation Center is among a large network of ag sites in California, which includes Granular (recently acquired by DuPont) in San Fransisco as well as other company sites in Fresno and Pittsburg.

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A Bad Year for Grain Farmers? All it Takes is Average Yeilds

WASHINGTON - At current prices, grain farmers are unlikely to make money if the record-high yields of 2017 retreat to average levels, said University of Illinois economist Gary Schnitkey during a farm income discussion at USDA's annual Outlook Forum.

Growers have faced a similar combination before and "that resulted in zero income in 2015," said Schnitkey. Farmers are more likely to make money if they own or share-rent land. Cash rental rates remain too high, on average, said Schnitkey, who based his presentation on a database of 5,500 central Illinois farms. Looking ahead, it will be "very hard to generate positive cash flow" absent higher yields or higher commodity prices.

USDA projects corn yields of 173.5 bushels an acre this year, down from the record 176.6 bushels of 2017. Soybean yields are projected at 48.4 bushels an acre, compared with 49.1 bushels last year, the second-highest yield on record. The projected corn yield would be the third highest ever.

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Could Trump Build Border Wall From Hemp?

One million acres of hemp builds Trump’s wall and $700 million buys the hemp, a pittance compared to overall construction estimates ranging from $15 billion to $70 billion.

A southern hemp wall is far from reality, but the concept reflects the remarkable promise of a once-maligned crop emerging in the marketplace. After roughly 90 years of dormancy, a sleeping hemp giant is awakening, and the numbers involved in a southern hempcrete wall reveal a crop with a phenomenal range of utility.

If a 30’ tall and 2’ wide hempcrete (a mixture of hydrated lime and hurd, hemp’s woody core) wall was built for 1,954 miles along the southern border, the structure would translate to 619,027,200 cubic feet of space. Each cubic foot would require 17 lb. of hempcrete, extrapolated to a total output of 5,261,731 tons of hempcrete for the entire structure, according to Richard Rose, a long-time U.S. hemp pioneer and industry advocate: “The hempcrete could be poured into a form to make tilt panels, which would be trucked to the site and literally put in place, just like regular concrete panels.”

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Do Bankers Really Make Acreage Decisions? Hear From a Banker

The USDA’s prospective plantings report will be released in 37 days, and analysts and producers are making their own estimations as to what the acreage mix will be.

Some analysts are pegging soybean acres to reach upwards of 92 million acres, while others think corn and soybean acres will be split 50/50.

During the U.S. Farm Report roundtable taping at the National Farm Machinery Show in Louisville, Chip Nellinger of Blue Reef Agri-Marketing, Inc., thinks if there are extra soybean acres, they won’t all come from corn.

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Chairman Conaway says Pathway to Farm Bill Now Easier

When Congress passed a supplemental disaster bill that included cotton and dairy as Title I commodities in the farm programs, the pathway to putting a new farm bill in place became a bit easier, says House Agriculture Committee Chairman Mike Conaway, R-Texas.

Chairman Conaway, in an interview with Delta Farm Press Thursday, said that the disaster legislation “set us up nicely to get a farm bill done on time.”

He praised Speaker of the House Paul Ryan and Rep. Kevin McCarthy, R-Cal., along with Sens., John Cornyn, R-Texas, John Boozman, R-Ark., and John Hoeven, R-N.D., for getting cotton and dairy included in the disaster bill. “And Jodey Arrington, R-Texas, was a key in communicating to members the importance of the legislation” Conaway said.

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Rural Bankers Report Economic Growth

The February Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) reveals a slight improvement for farmers’ financial conditions—increasing to the highest level since May 2014. The monthly survey of bank CEOs in a 10-state Midwest region increased to 54.8 in February. In January, the index was 46.8, which was below the growth-neutral rating of 50.

“Given that fewer than one in four, or 23.9%, of bankers reported economic growth in their area, the solid February reading surprised me,” says Ernie Goss, who chairs Creighton’s Heider College of Business and leads the RMI. “However, weak agriculture commodity prices continue to weigh on the rural economy.”

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Tight Margins, Growing Demand in 2018

Farmers should plan for another year of tight margins in row crops in 2018, but Dr. Nathan Smith, a Clemson University economist, sees good demand for cotton, corn, peanuts and soybeans in the year to come.

“When you have tight margins and you have equity and investments that you have made, you are looking to protect that investment. Crop insurance certainly is more important at this time as well as farm programs. Both are more important with lower farm income,” Smith said at the SC AgriBiz & Farm Expo in Florence Jan. 17.

Smith sees global stock building for most commodities in the year ahead, but he says growing demand will help reduce the impact of higher stocks. A buildup in livestock numbers will help corn and soybean demand, while increasing consumer interest in cotton over manmade fiber will help cotton demand.

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Farm Manager of the Year Attends Career Fair


One of ASFMRA's Farm Managers of the Year, Tim Cobb, AFM attended an FFA Career fair to promote careers in agriculture and the value of ASFMRA membership. 

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The Appraisal Foundation Seeks Candidates for the Board of Trustees

The Appraisal Foundation is searching for qualified candidates to serve on its Board of Trustees (BOT). The BOT is the governing body of The Appraisal Foundation and works to promote professionalism and ensure public trust in the valuation profession. In 2018, there are five At-Large Trustee positions under consideration for appointment or reappointment, including one consumer representative seat.

The BOT provides financial support and oversight to the Foundation’s two independent boards, the Appraiser Qualifications Board (AQB) and the Appraisal Standards Board (ASB). The BOT meets in the Spring and Fall, and while Trustees are reimbursed for travel expenses, they are not compensated for their time. One of the five individuals elected as an At-Large Trustee will immediately be seated to fill the remainder of a term ending December 31, 2019. The remaining four individuals elected as At-Large Trustees will serve three-year terms commencing on January 1, 2019.

The Appraisal Foundation encourages those with leadership experience and an interest in the valuation profession to apply. Individuals serving on the BOT have diverse backgrounds and represent all appraisal disciplines, users of appraisal services, former appraiser regulators, academics, and business leaders. When evaluating candidates, the Trustee Nominating Committee will seek to choose qualified candidates who contribute to creating a diverse BOT.

Click here to download the application packages for the At-Large Trustee vacancies. Completed applications for BOT vacancies must be received by March 5, 2018.
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Welcome New Members

Thank you for being a part of ASFMRA! Help ASFMRA welcome our new members and thank them for    choosing the Society as the organization that they desire to be affiliated with.  ASFMRA continues to support rural property professionals and offers services, resources and education which will be of benefit to all of our members, both professionally and personally.

We are recognizing new members of the Society on a monthly basis. You may recognize your colleagues in the following list and we encourage you to welcome them into ASFMRA!

New Members

John Ambrose with Farmers National Company in Yukon, OK (Oklahoma Chapter)
Luke Arthur with F.A.R.M. Appraisals LLC in Cynthiana, KY (Kentucky Chapter)
Mandy Bogart with Farmers National Company in Hereford, TX (Texas Chapter)
Nathanial Cahill with U.S. Trust, Bank of America, N.A. in Kansas City, MO (Kansas & Missouri Chapters)
Maggie Dae in Newark, OH (Ohio Chapter)
Bradford Davis with US Bank in Springfield, IL (Illinois Chapter)
Brady Evans with US Bank in Springfield, IL (Illinois Chapter)
Timothy Foster with Live Oak Analytics, LLC in Fort Myers, FL (Florida Chapter)
Ashton Frampton in Ceres, CA (California Chapter)
Hayden Gerdes in Benson, IL (Illinois Chapter)
Dusty Goff in Moscow, ID (Idaho-Utah and Washington Chapters)
Cori Green with Paul Moore Appraisal Services, LLC in Versailles, KY (Kentucky Chapter)
Brandon Hanson in Ames, IA (Iowa Chapter)
Erin Hardin with The Real Estate Center @ TAMU in College Station, TX (Texas Chapter)
Jorgan Holtcamp with Walters & Associates, LTD in Alamosa, CO (Colorado Chapter)
Kyle Jacobs with Homestead Capital in Idaho Falls, ID (Idaho-Utah Chapter)
Dale Kenne with Agri-Management Services in Coralville, IA (Iowa Chapter)
Sara Lockhart with Lockhart Appraisal in Sonora, CA (California Chapter)
Allison Masching in Normal, IL (Illinois Chapter)
Katelynn Masengale in Rantoul, IL (Illinois Chapter)
Matthew Mayer with VisAg Solutions, LLC in Spirit Lake, IA (Iowa Chapter)
Leo Miller with Farmers National Company in West Des Moines, IA (Iowa Chapter)
Troy Nielsen in Parma, ID (Idaho-Utah Chapter)
Tammi Parker with Farm Credit Mid America in Rochester, IN (Indiana Chapter)
Tyler Radke with Farmers National Company in Mitchell, SD (South Dakota Chapter)
John Reburn with Peoples Company in Clive, IA (Iowa Chapter)
Daniel Riewerts with Hertz Farm Management in Geneseo, IL (Illinois Chapter)
Ryan Sadler with Farmers National Company in Maryville, MO (Missouri Chapter)
Traci Schermerhorn in Ankeny, IA (Iowa Chapter)
Nicholis Smith in Carbondale, IL (Illinois Chapter)
Trevor Smith with Farmers National Company in Kiowa, KS (Kansas Chapter)
Gage Tynan in Normal, IL (Illinois Chapter)
Jeff Unfried with Bolinger Appraisal in Hopkinsville, KY (Kentucky Chapter)
Barry Watts with Watts Farming Company in Bakersfield, CA (California Chapter)
Walter Westbrook with SWGA Farm Credit in Americus, GA (Georgia Chapter)
Kevin White with Santa Paula Fitness, Inc. in Santa Paula, CA (California Chapter)
Terry Wing in Marshall, MN (Minnesota Chapter)
Trent Wyss in Washington, IL (Illinois Chapter)
Logan Zeisler with Northern Plains Appraisal in Brookings, SD (South Dakota Chapter)

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Share Your Experience - Make a Refferal

You know first-hand what a great organization ASFMRA is and what it means to you both professionally and personally. Pass that benefit on to others that you know who would benefit from membership with The Most Trusted rural property professional organization – ASFMRA! Talk to those you know who would benefit from ASFMRA’s educational offerings, networking, and meetings. Let them know your experiences of being involved in this great association and some of the business contacts you have made along with lasting friendships. Your peers listed below have done just that! They spoke to individuals about ASFMRA and those individuals have now become members of ASFMRA!

Arthur Bliss, Jr., ARA
Ben Bolinger
Thomas Boyer, AFM, ARA, AAC
Harold Carter, ARA
Daniel Ceilley, ARA
Tom Cobb, AFM
Katherine Fraser
Robert Frizell, AFM
Brian Gatzke, ARA
Janie Gatzman, ARA
Charles Gilliland, Ph.D.
Bradley Hayes
Richard Isaacson, AFM, ARA
Heidi Jamison
Edward Kiefer, AFM, ARA
Mike Lansford, AFM
Roger Leach, AFM, AAC
Kevin McCarty
Paul Moore, ARA, RPRA
Colby Myers
Skye Root, AFM, AAC
Traci Schermerhorn
Ethan Smith, AFM
Brock Thurman
John Van Zee

Thank you to all who have referred someone and in some cases, more than one, to join ASFMRA.

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